2024 Election Forecast Model. This year's version of the time for change model shows kamala harris as a narrow favorite in both the popular vote and electoral college, but her predicted margins are. Forecast and graphics designed by:

As of the end of july 2024, assuming a biden gallup approval score of 40 percent and a continued rate of jobs growth between 1 and 2 percent, the model predicts a very narrow democratic 2024 victory in the electoral. On top of getting the outcome right, the forecast predicted the senate composition.